The Current

The U.S. stock market has put in a solid showing so far in the third quarter, following a somewhat disappointing month of June.  Traders seem pleased with the second-quarter earnings season thus far. In general, the results have exceeded expectations with over 80% of companies reporting earnings that have exceeded expectations.  Consensus is now 20% year over earnings growth for 2018 vs. 2017 in the S&P500.

While the imposition of trade tariffs has caused some uncertainty, many on Wall Street seem to be speculating that the situation will be resolved favorably. Real GDP grew at a 4.1% annual rate in the second quarter, and is up 2.8% over the past year. While some economists are skeptical about the sustainability of this level of productivity, others are predicting increases for Real GDP Growth for the balance of 2018.

The economy appears to be on a good track with reports on consumer spending, leading indicators, and jobless claims (which recently fell to their lowest level since 1969) more than offsetting recent weakness in housing. This momentum should continue at a healthy pace over the summer and into the fall with continued positive earnings news down the stretch this year.